Thursday, August 20, 2015

Buy Signal !!! Volume Vs Prices

A buy signal is triggered when a stock hits a minor new low and Ord - Volume on the down leg shrinks by approximately 50 percent or greater against the previous down leg or previous up leg; the stock then closes above the previous low. Both conditions indicate the stock is in a strong position. Confirmation of a bottom is produced when Ord – Volume increases by 50 percent or more on the up leg after the bottom compared to the down leg going into the bottom. Let ’ s take a look at how this works using a hypothetical example: stock “ EDF. ” Figure 3.18 shows EDF declines to $ 50 a share on Ord - Volume of 100 million shares. In this example, EDF rallies and then declines again — with Ord - Volume on the second down leg of 25 million shares, putting in a new low at $ 49.50. You can see that the average daily volume is 75 percent less on the second down leg compared with the first. In this instance, a buy signal is triggered on a close above the previous low of $ 50 a share. Because the energy in this stock had switched from the downside to the upside, Ord - Volume increases on the subsequent up leg — in this instance a 300 percent increase to 75 million shares compared with the volume of the previous down leg of 25 million shares. Figure 3.19 shows hypothetical stock “ MNO ” with average daily volume on a down leg of 100 million shares to a low of $ 50 a share, then a rally and a break to a new low of $ 49.50 a share. Volume on that second down leg declined by 50 percent compared with the previous down leg. The rally from the low at $ 49.50 had a 50 percent increase in Ord – Volume compared to previous down leg and confi rmed the bottom.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

YOCB : Hong Leong & RHB-OSK are buying ?

Executive summary 

Moderate volume kick-in on today and yesterday with bullish green candle, the price action was break immediate resistance at $1.07(gap down candle build on 7/30/15), it carry bullish implication and I anticipating next swing up to next target of $1.24/$1.29 , along the path we should face resistance at $1.13/$1.17.
Immediate support found at $1.05/$1.00. any weakness toward $1.05 is opportunity for me to collect, I will stop loss if prices close below $1.00  

Technical Justification 

Left hand site(uptrend) and right hand(down trend) site trading Method, we are in left hand site trading zone with strong technical indication
1. Spike up A on Jun was go beyond pivot A, it is indication on right hand site ended
2. Spike up B on 23/7/15 validate smaller right hand site, swing up about to happen.

Elliot wave trading, we do see two high possibility wave counter is pointing uptrend in weekly trend, there wave C and wave 3

Weekly chart on Wave 3 is pointing  $1.17 and $1.25 it is pulling institutional and investment bank attention due to in cycle wave degree.

Second weekly alternate wave count is wave C, it is pointing up to $1.54/$1.70

Daily chart is show expanding triangle, wave 5 uptrend is under developing, most high probability pattern formation could unfolding is double Zia Zag and it heading to $1.54

Price action show immediate resistance $1.07 been remove on today and it is bullish implication, most likely it will test next resistance at $1.13/1.17 to the target of $1.24/$1.28. Immediate support at $1.05/$1.00.

Environment scan

Fundamental show attractive results, key financial indication is good results which is pulling Institutional Fund and investment bank invest on it,
such as Hong Leong Consumer Product SF and RHB-OSK Fund.

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Trading Challenge

Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.

I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.

As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.


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