Thursday, February 26, 2015

What if China is no longer World's lowest cost production country?


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China’s manufacturing industry expects an explosion in factory closings this year and the first wave is hitting now.

Citizen closed a watch factory ahead of Spring Festival, affecting 1,000 workers.
Most of the workers at a well-known Japanese company in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, that shut down last week have signed contracts to leave the company of their own accord after mediation from local labor department and trade unions by Monday noon.
A recent case in point is the decision of Citizen China, which produces Japanese Citizen watches, to fold its production base in Guangzhou, on the heels of Microsoft which announced on Dec. 17 its decision to close the mobile-phone factories of Nokia, under its auspices, in Beijing and Dongguan by the Spring Festival moving facilities to Nokia’s factory in Hanoi.

A number of other foreign enterprises are scheduled to join the exodus this year, including Panasonic, Sharp, Daikin, and TDK, all Japanese firms, which plan to transfer some capacity from China back to Japan or to other countries. Others, such as Uniqlo, Nike, Foxconn, Funai, Clarion, and Samsung, are setting up new factories in Southeast Asia and India, while scaling down their Chinese operations.

Notably, Japanese companies are moving back to Japan, in part due to the cheaper yen and perhaps expectations of further weakness in the yen. China, on the other hand, is squeezing its low cost manufacturers with a stronger yuan.

Hundreds of factories have shut or ceased operations in Dongguan ahead of the holiday and Wenzhou’s industry is fading:

Industry insiders estimate that there are more than 100 large scale factories closing before the Spring Festival, in Dongguan hundreds of large factories closed down or stop operations. Furthermore, known manufacturing capital, to manufacture glasses, shoes, lighters the world famous Wenzhou, the manufacturing industry is currently experiencing a hollowing out, shoes, lighters and other industries, their one proud aura is gradually fading.
Surveys from China showed manufacturing struggling at the start of 2015 in the world's second biggest economy.

The Chinese HSBC/Markit PMI inched up a fraction to 49.7. But of more concern the official PMI, which is biased towards large factories, unexpectedly showed activity shrank for the first time in nearly 2-1/2 years. The reading of 49.8 in January was down from December's 50.1 and missed a median forecast of 50.2. The report showed input costs sliding at their fastest rate since March 2009, with lower prices for oil and steel playing major roles.
Ordinarily, cheaper energy prices would be good for China, one of the world's most intensive energy consumers, but many economists believe the phenomenon is a net negative for Chinese firms because of its impact on demand.

The PMIs only fuelled bets on a weaker yuan and that more monetary easing was in store in Beijing too.

"China still needs decent growth to add 100 million new jobs this year, plus China is entering a rapid disinflation process," ANZ economists said in a note to clients.
"We (think) the People's Bank of China will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points in the first quarter."
Slightly better news came from Japan, where the central bank has been pursuing an aggressive bond-buying campaign for over a year in a bid to revive growth and shake the country out of decades of deflation.

China has long accepted its role as the lowest cost producer which attract high amounts of foreign direct investment from global market, exploiting their factor endowment of excess labour, however this was always going to be a transient situation; while multinational firms just want to identify and exploit the lowest marginal cost producer, regardless of where this may be from, so if China is no longer the cost leader, the viability for China to maintain current favorable position is no doubt one of the biggest questions.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

HHGROUP (0175): was Prepared and Ready to go up !!!

My Trade Plan 

I am bough this stock, because I am anticipated it will breakaway from RM 0.495 and heading to RM 0.515, if prices successfully stay above Rm 0.515, most likely it will test RM0.550 and RM 0.620.
Any weakness show and I will collect on RM 0.470, it is second opportunity for me to collect more
My Stop loss is below RM 0.445.
I will start to lock in profit when it hit Rm0.55 and remaining will try to Rm 0.620 with trailing stop

Technical analysis

It was all the way down right after the IPO on last year, it formed a downtrend channel and the trend-line was break by a big candle on 23/1/2015, this big candle also break the double bottom formation, which showing us a strong indication!!! bottom was reached and reversal up is coming.

Right after the break out, retracement and correction  about a month, which is showed the strong support at the RM 0.450, which is right at double bottom neckline and downtrend channel back support line.

From Elliott wave point of View, it is forming an sharp corrective wave up pattern, In Which is wave A and C are TREND wave and B does not retrace more than 61.8% of wave A, it most common corrective pattern see in Elliott wave,
Once price reach and go beyond 0.495 and is comfirm  ABC formation and target for wave C will be RM0.575.


 Trading Challenge
Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.
I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.


As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Currency controls is strengthened as Ukraine's currency slump for economic fears


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Ukraine’s currency touched record lows Monday as continued violence in the rebel-held east fueled pessimism about the country’s economic future. The currency slump came as the Ukrainian military said it will not pull back its heavy arms from the front lines until attacks by pro-Russian rebels cease completely. Rebel leaders said they have agreed to begin a fuller withdrawal starting Tuesday.
A pullback of heavy weaponry is a key step in a cease-fire deal reached this month, but both sides have said that fighting is continuing, casting doubt on ­efforts to quell the 10-month-old conflict.
Less than two weeks after the International Monetary Fund announced a $17.5 billion bailout loan for Ukraine, the central bank tightened capital controls to prevent the country from running out of foreign currency.
In spite of what has been pledged, Ukraine hasn’t received a major injection of IMF cash since a $1.4 billion disbursement on Sept. 3, the lender’s website shows. With its foreign reserves dropping 61 percent to $6.4 billion in the four months through January, the country’s “cupboard is basically bare,” said Timothy Ash from Standard Bank Group Plc.
The Ukrainian central bank moved to impose currency controls as the hryvnia plunged another 10 percent against the dollar on Monday -- a move analysts said would do little to bolster the currency.
The hryvnia's decline came amid growing concern a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine will not hold. The currency has now lost half its value in 2015, after falling by 50 percent over all of 2014.
"We will not allow the situation to get out of control," the head of the central bank, Valeriia Gontareva, said at a press briefing. There were no fundamental reasons for the hryvnia to weaken further, she said.
The average hryvnia rate slid 10 percent on Monday to a fresh-record low of 30.55 to the dollar as of 1400 GMT, after Ukraine's military said ongoing rebel attacks were preventing it from withdrawing its heavy weapons from the front line in eastern Ukraine.
A trader at a large foreign bank in Ukraine said he was seeing market rates at around 31.3-31.8 to the dollar.
"For now, the market is weakening and there's no reason to see it stabilising so long as the war rolls on," he said.
The latest hryvnia level is nearly 30 percent weaker than the 21.7 rate foreseen in Ukraine' 2015 budget. If the weakness persists, it will upset the government's strict austerity plans.
"They plan to raise (energy) tariffs. But if hryvnia devaluation continues, they will have to increase tariffs again in two to three months," said Vasyl Yurchyshyn, the director of economic programmes at the Razumkov Centre think tank in Kiev.
The currency’s nose dive puts even more pressure on government finances, making it harder for the country to buy energy, military hardware and the basics necessary for a war-hit population. It also sends prices of imported goods skyrocketing, meaning that ordinary Ukrainians need to pay far more for their groceries.
The plunge calls into question Ukraine’s ability to repay money borrowed from global creditors. The central bank’s reserves of foreign currency are depleted, raising the prospect that the nation could soon go bankrupt. Ukrainian military officials said Monday that the ongoing violence means they cannot pull back their weaponry.

Monday, February 23, 2015

AngloGold Vows to Only Sell Mines for ‘Full Value,’ CEO Says


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AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., the world’s third-largest gold miner, is under no pressure to sell assets and will only do so for “full value,” Chief Executive Officer Srinivasan Venkatakrishnan said.

The partial or full sale of one of the company’s key operating assets “is being looked at and progressed,” Venkatakrishnan said on a conference call on Monday. That’s part of the company’s plan to reduce net debt by about $1 billion, or a third of the total, over the medium term.

“What we are not going to be doing is a fire sale of assets,” he said. “The shop is closed for bargain hunters. If we don’t get full value we won’t sell, it’s as simple as that.”

AngloGold is trying to offer mines or share capital costs with accomplices in an offer to diminish its $3.1 billion of net debt, mostly collected amid the decade-long bull run in gold to 2011. The organization retired an arrangement to part its South African operations from its global resources in September when speculators including support stock investments tycoon John Paulson dismissed the extent of a going with $2 billion offer deal.

Venkatakrishnan said he wouldn’t be naming which assets could be sold because “these are operating mines and also there are various stakeholders involved.”

AngloGold is also seeking partners for its Obuasi mine in Ghana and Colombian exploration assets. AngloGold is gauging interest from other bullion producers and “non-conventional players” that want exposure to bullion “particularly given the uncertainty that still exists on how reliable the U.S. recovery is,” Venkatakrishnan said.

A sum of 50 deals totaling more than $2 billion were accounted for by private investments in the mining segment, as per investigation by law office Berwin Leighton Paisner discharged for this present month. Gold was the most mainstream for arrangement creators with an aggregate of 15 transactions completed. AngloGold made a headline loss, which excludes one-time items, of $71 million, or 17 cents a share, in the three months to Dec. 31, compared with a profit of $44 million, or 11 cents, in the previous quarter, the Johannesburg-based company said in a statement on Monday.

AngloGold incurred $147 million of costs relating to job cuts and other restructuring at Obuasi in the fourth quarter, it said. It had to pay $44 million related to accounting losses at the country’s biggest bullion-processing plant, Rand Refinery. Other gold producers also had to foot the bill for the losses at the facility.

Gold produced climbed 2 percent to 1.16 million ounces in the quarter, while all-in sustaining costs declined 2 percent to $1,017 an ounce. AngloGold’s net debt was $3.1 billion at the end of 2014, or 1.9 times profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That is up from $2.95 billion toward the end of the second from last quarter and about the same as a year prior.

The shares climbed for the first time in five days, adding 1.1 percent to 138.27 rand by 9:10 a.m. in Johannesburg, extending the gain this year to 35 percent and making AngloGold the third-best performer on the 167-member FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index in the period.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Oil price falls again and 'could hit $10 a barrel'


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At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 crest of $107. They may fall all the more, maybe even as low as $10 to $20. Here's the reason.
U.S. economic growth has arrived at the midpoint of 2.3 percent a year since the recuperation began in mid-2009. That is about a large portion of the rate you may expect in a bounce back from the deepest subsidence since the 1930s. In the interim, development in China is moderating, is negligible in the euro zone and is negative in Japan. Toss in the expansive increment in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and its acceptable why worldwide oil interest is feeble and may even decay.
A. Gary Shilling argues that a combination of factors will push the oil price down again.
The first is the diminishing power of the Opec cartel. In Shilling's view, Saudi Arabia has experienced market-share losses in the past, due to the "cheating" of fellow cartel members, who have exceeded their agreed output quotes.
Consequently, Saudi Arabia has embarked on a "game of chicken" with the cheaters, believing that it can withstand low prices for longer than its financially weaker competitors. The latest figures suggest that Saudi oil production has now increased to 10m barrels per day, and data out later today is expected to show that US oil output is also on the increase.
"According to the American Petroleum Institute, US crude stocks rose by 14.3m barrels last week, far more than analysts had expected, The Guardian reports. "Markets are waiting for official figures from the US Energy Information Administration, out at 16.00 GMT. If they confirm the large build-up in inventories, it would be the biggest weekly increase since data started in 1982.

Some analysts had predicted that the falling oil price would act as a brake on production, especially in the US, where extraction costs are higher. What is the cost at which significant makers back down and cut output? Whatever that cost is, it is much lower than the $125 a barrel Venezuela needs to backing its blundered economy. The same strives for Ecuador, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, Iran and Angola. Saudi Arabia obliges a cost of more than $90 to reserve its financial plan. At the same time it has $726 billion in remote cash saves and is wagering it can make due at two years with costs of not exactly $40 a barrel.

Besides, the cost when makers back down isn't fundamentally the normal expense of creation, which for 80 percent of new U.S. shale oil generation not long from now will be $50 to $69 a barrel, as per Daniel Yergin of energy consultant IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Rather, the back down point is the minor expense of creation, or the extra expenses after the wells are bored and the channels are laid. An alternate approach to consider it: It's the cost at which income for an extra barrel tumbles to zero.
According to research by the energy research organisation Wood Mackenzie, only 1.6 percent of the 2,222 oil fields they surveyed around the world are likely to have negative cash flow at $40 a barrel. Consequently, Shilling says that the marginal cost for both US shale-oil producers and oil producers in the Persian Gulf "is about $10 to $20 a barrel".

Finally, as supply continues to rise, Shilling notes that global demand is receding. The International Energy Agency has been slashing its forecasts for global oil demand growth for months, the International Business Times reports. The agency's 2015 global demand forecast now sits at 93.3 million barrels a day, while supply is likely to exceed this demand by 400,000 barrels a day. 

A top oil analyst has warned that oil prices are likely to fall further this year before they recover, with West Texas Intermediate crude possibly falling below $40 a barrel in the second quarter of the year. Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, told CNBC that the "cycle has a long way to run out", adding that the spread between Brent and WTI could widen to about $10.
Despite the fact that the 40 percent decrease in U.S. fuel prices since April 2014 has driven buyers to purchase more gas-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks, purchasers amid the recent years have purchased the most productive mix of autos and trucks ever. In the meantime, moderating development in China and the shift far from vitality escalated made fares and base to buyer administrations is discouraging oil request. China represented 66% of the development popular for oil in the previous decade.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Greece wins eurozone bailout deal with strict conditions


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Euro-area finance ministers reached an accord that would keep bailout funds flowing to Greece in return for a commitment to meet certain conditions, buying time to work out the detail of longer-term Greek financing.Talks in Brussels between officials from the 19 euro-area finance officials concluded Friday evening with an agreement to extend aid to Greece for four months. The 19 eurozone finance ministers reached the hard-won deal at tense talks pitting Greece against an angry Germany, suspicious that the new radical leftist government in Athens was looking to ditch its austerity obligations.
"The meeting was intense because it was about building trust between us," said Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem, after the talks ended with a two-page statement setting out the tough conditions Athens will have to fulfil.
“We agreed on four months under conditions,” Joerg Schelling told reporters after the meeting. Greece must submit a list on Monday of measures it will undertake in return and “the institutions check whether the list is sufficient,” he said.
In exchange for the extension, Greece agreed it will submit a list of economic and other reforms by Monday which its eurozone partners will then review to see if they go far enough.
On Tuesday, they will report back to Greece and decide whether to proceed with Friday's agreement, with the chance that the compromise be scrapped if officials are left unsatisfied.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said the deal marked a new era for Athens and its relationship with the European Union, after two painful bailouts put together at the height of the debt crisis to save the euro. Breakthrough in the standoff between Greece and its creditors eases the immediate risk of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government running out of cash as early as next month. It might also go some way to help repair the ties between Greece and Germany, the biggest European contributor to Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($274 billion) twin bailouts and the chief proponent of economic reforms in return.
U.S. stocks rose and the euro advanced with European equity futures amid optimism over the prospects for an accord.
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said the deal marked a new era for Athens and its relationship with the European Union, after two painful bailouts put together at the height of the debt crisis to save the euro.
Athens claimed the rescues and the austerity measures it had to follow since its first 2010 bailout had wrecked the Greek economy, making it impossible to manage its mountain of debt.
"Today was a pivotal moment because Greece for five years now has been lonely, isolated in the Eurogroup. Today that isolation has broken," Varoufakis said.
However, he warned: "If the list of reforms is not agreed, this agreement is dead."
Markets reacted positively to the deal, with the Dow and S&P 500 surging to fresh records on Wall Street as fears of a catastrophic exit by Greece from the euro receded. With distrust for Greece widespread among ministers, it was a lengthy phone call between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel late Thursday which appeared to make Friday's breakthrough possible.
European officials said the stand-off had come down to a clash of personalities with Schaeuble furious at the negotiating style of the casual Varoufakis, who, in a change, remained markedly sombre on Friday. Analysts in Athens are already describing the concessions made by the Greek government as "politically poisonous." 
Any reforms will have to be endorsed by the Greek parliament. 
The talk of an apparent breakthrough has helped the euro rally and U.S. stock markets to turn positive. The Greek government was effectively just a week away from having to fend for itself, as its debt deal with the EU expires Feb. 28. Friday's emergency Eurogroup meeting, which included International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, is the third in just over a week. Financial markets have been gripped by the precarious negotiations. 
"It has been a laborious but eventually constructive process," Lagarde said after the meeting.
Without any further support, Greece faced defaulting on its debts and an exit from the euro, a scenario that would likely devastate the Greek economy, at least in the short-term, and generate renewed uncertainty for the global economy.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Greek financing talks separate in the midst of profound divisions over bailout


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Negotiations over how to keep Greece afloat broke down abruptly Monday, demonstrating a wide gulf between Athens and its European creditors and triggering a new, heightened state of uncertainty about the country’s future inside the currency bloc. The breakdown in talks among eurozone finance ministers leaves Greece and its lenders dashing to achieve another financing arrangement for the obliged nation before its current bailout arrangement terminates. The ministers cancelled the arranging session simply a couple of hours after it started, saying Greece left them little any desire for securing an understanding. The ministers, in turn, presented the new left-wing government in Athens with an ultimatum: Agree to an extension of the current €240 billion ($272 billion) bailout by the end of the week or lose the lifeline of rescue loans that have sustained Greece for nearly five years.
A crucial meeting of eurozone finance ministers over the future of Greece’s bailout broke down in acrimony after Athens angrily rejected the bloc’s insistence that it agree to complete its current €172bn rescue as “absurd” and “unacceptable”.
It is the second time in five days that negotiations between the new anti-austerity Greek government and its eurozone creditors have collapsed and it means Athens, whose public finances are deteriorating fast, could soon be left with no European financial backstop. The eurozone gave Athens until Wednesday night to switch course and look for an augmentation of the current project, which is because of terminate toward the end of one week from now.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, oppose the terms of the rescue deal from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, saying they are hurting its economy and society.
“It’s not a bluff, because it’s the only option we have,” Mr. Varoufakis said of his government’s position after the meeting. “It’s plan A, there is no plan B.”
In the event that the bailout closes as planned on February 28, the Greek government will lose access to the last €7.2 billion cut of its present bailout, conceivably abandoning it not able to make obligation reimbursements approaching in March. That could, in the most pessimistic scenario, trigger a progression of occasions that would compel Greece out of the eurozone.
“The general feeling [among ministers] is still that the best way forward would be for the Greek authorities to seek an extension of the current program,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch minister who presides over the regular meetings with his counterparts. “We simply need more time,” he added.

Greek officials have said the government could continue striving for a while, however there are questions. To what extent it takes depends, all things considered, on Greek citizens. The banks have as of now seen cash being withdrawn and progressively require national bank advances. In the event that there is no bailout program, the European Central Bank could pull the fitting on the banks. On the off chance that it went to that, it truly would mean a major monetary emergency, with maybe the burden of far reaching budgetary controls to prop up the banks and potentially even the re-presentation of a national money. It's tricky to nail down a date by which an understanding must be carried out to turn away a monetary Armageddon, on the grounds that it relies on upon the activities of citizens, bank clients and the ECB. Be that as it may time is getting short.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Shanghai Margin Trades shrink most in three years prior CNY

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Chinese brokers lessened possessions of stocks obtained with acquired cash by the most in three years as money needs expanded before the week-long Lunar New Year occasions. The outstanding value of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell 3.1 percent on Feb. 13 to 779.2 billion yuan ($124.9 billion), according to data from the bourse. That’s the biggest drop since Jan. 20, 2012, when it slid 4.8 percent.

Some investors in the world’s second-largest economy are raising cash to pay for gifts and food before the holidays, which start on Feb. 18 and will spur the Shanghai exchange to shut through Feb. 24. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has jumped 52 during the past year, the best performance among major markets tracked by Bloomberg, as central bank stimulus encouraged traders to boost margin debt to an all-time high earlier this month.

“Some investors have chosen to hold cash instead of stocks when the market is shut for so long,” Wei Wei, an analyst at West China Securities Co., said by phone from Shanghai. “They want to be less exposed to uncertainty during the holidays. The fundamentals of the market haven’t changed.”

The extraordinary estimation of edge exchanging on the Shanghai trade rose to a record 805.1 billion yuan on Feb. 11, with utilized stock buys surging more than 10-fold in the course of recent years. Chinese authorities have taken steps to cool the use of borrowed money. The securities regulator suspended new margin accounts at three of the nation’s biggest brokerages last month and issued a notice to ban loans to traders with less than 500,000 yuan. In a margin trade, investors use their own money for just a portion of their stock purchase, borrowing the rest from a brokerage. The loans are backed by the investors’ equity holdings, meaning that they may be forced to sell when prices fall to repay their loan.

In an edge exchange, investors utilize their own particular cash for simply an allotment of their stock buy, obtaining the rest from a business. The credits are supported by the financial specialists' value possessions, implying that they may be compelled to offer when costs tumble to reimburse their obligation. Investors’ interpretation that regulators are stifling money markets through the suspension isn't exact, CSRC representative Deng Ge said, by proclamation on the commission's site. The controller made a move "to secure speculators' rights and backing the solid development of edge exchanging," Deng said.

Concerns are growing, too, over other debt-fueled investment, including so-called umbrella trusts—products that take cash from wealth-management products and hedge funds and pump the money into equities. The debt that funneled into China’s stocks last year helped make the Shanghai Composite the world’s best performer in 2014. The worry is that the widespread use of debt risks making the market far more unstable. Despite efforts to open the market to foreign fund managers, the market remains mostly made up of individual Chinese investors who could be left with steep losses if their leveraged bets were to turn sour.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Perdana Petroleum Bhd; Breakout and heading from RM1.27 to RM1.33/1.38/1.49

My trade plan
I scale/buy in when price break away from Rm 1.24 on Friday and it close at RM 1.27. 
Immediate support is RM 1.24/1.21/1.19 and Strong support at Rm 1.12
Any weakness should find support on 1.24/1.21/1.19 which provide opportunity for me to collect,
I will stop lost if price close below RM 1.12 
I am aiming for the profit target at RM1.33/1.38/1.49.

Technical Justification on Bullish Implication.
It is very seldom to see multiple bullish set up and breakout at the same time, I listed down what are those, I not describe all, but I will draw out one for learning, below is 5 of the bullish implication set up in Perdana Petroleum 
1. Inverted Head and should Breakout
2. Double Bottom Formation Breakout
3. Cup with handle Breakout
4. 4 Market stages, Stage 1 ended with stage 2 Breakout
5. Wave 3 Breakout

Inverted Head and Shoulder Breakout  


The chart above is inverted head and shoulder breakout, typical minum target for the prices action will reach RM 1.38. it is a reliable chart set up for the pattern trading,

 Trading Challenge
Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.
I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.


As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Bornoil(7036.KL); Time to Takeoff to RM1:20/1:31/1:45/1:65 ?


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Weekly chart

Figure 1 weekly chart and is forming Double Zig Zag C, this pattern has been defined as a sharp corrective pattern, which is 2 Zigzags are connected by X wave, which does not more than 61% of wave A,B and C combined, it is common corrective pattern, it look very much like impulse wave

Fig 1

Weekly Chart Wave Target

1.) Target for Wave Y is Rm 1.65
2.) Target for Wave C is Rm 1.15
3.) Target for Wac C is Rm 1.10
4.) Target for wave c is Rm 1.10

Weekly chart figure 2 is showed two important point, 

1st key point is rectangle box is indicated stock under consolidation/accumulation, after that it have a great move up.
2nd key point is the ascending triangle formation, it is typical consolidation formation. it will have great move up right after the consolidation ended.

Chart figure 3 is forex exchange EURGBP spot

It is an example of this currency pair breakaway from 0.702 to 0.720 after ascending triangle consolidation ended.

Fig 3
  
Why I love in TA ? because I can trade with the chart pattern, it very high probability the pattern will repeat and appear in many counter. 

I do attached NYSE counter(Ambac Financial group) figure 4 chart, I did see  gap up and break above the resistance line than all the way up to hit the target !!! Similar case will happen on Borneo Oil Bhd ??? My personal point of view Borneo oil is much more bullish than Ambac !!!


Fig 4
Chart fig 5 is another example of ascending pattern. MGM Resort International, it have similar characteristic, will have a big move up. 
Fig 5
Target for Ascending is RM 1.20

Daily Chart 

It is very clear we are riding very sharp wave C/3 uptrend, in a nut shell it is very similar to the systech TA I did and both counters had similar characteristic, which is ABC sharp correction up trend, in fact Bornoil is much more bullish than systech.

Fig 6

The chart Fig 7 is Support and resistance line


Support/Resistance/Target


1.) Resistance 1 : RM 1:00
2.) Resistance 2 : RM 1:20
3.) Resistance 3 : RM 1:31
4,) Resistance 4 : RM 1:45

1.) Support Zone RM0.915-0.935
2.) Support line : RM0.875-0.865 

Weekly Chart Wave Target

1.) Target for Wave Y is Rm 1.65
2.) Target for Wave C is Rm 1.15
3.) Target for Wac C is Rm 1.10
4.) Target for wave c is Rm 1.10

Daily Chart Target 
1.) Wave C is RM 1:10
2,) Wave 3 is RM 1:20


My Trade Plan

I am anticipate it will breakaway from RM 0.960 and heading to Psychology resistance of Rm1:00, if prices stay above RM 1:00 it will heading to RM1:20/1:31/1:45/1:65 

My profit target near the resistance level which is RM1:20/1:31/1:45/1:65 
Any weakness will provide opportunity to collect in near the support area at RM0.915-0.935
I will cut my position if Rm 0.865 break 
After Target hit, I will apply trailing stop to protect my profit and capital


Trading Challenge
Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.
I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.


As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Obama 2016 budget urges U.S. states to cut emissions faster


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President Barack Obama's fiscal 2016 budget proposes boosting funding for clean energy by 7 percent and a new $4 billion fund to encourage U.S. states to make faster and deeper cuts to emissions from power plants, officials said Monday. Obama's budget also calls for the permanent extension of the Production Tax Credit, used by the wind industry, and the Investment Tax Credit, used by the solar industry, the officials said.

President Obama's fiscal 2016 budget introduces a one-time 14 percent tax on approximately $2 trillion of so-called unrepatriated foreign earnings. President Obama’s fiscal year 2016 budget introduces a one-time 14 percent tax on approximately $2 trillion of so-called unrepatriated foreign earnings. The tax would raise about $248 billion over the next five years, which would be used to help pay for infrastructure projects and replenish the Highway Trust Fund.

The proposal would also impose a 19 percent tax on future foreign earnings (with an 85 percent credit for any foreign taxes paid), allowing such earnings to then be brought back to the United States with no additional tax due. Under current law, multinational corporations based in the United States are nominally taxed at a 35 percent rate on worldwide income. But the tax does not have to be paid on earnings by a controlled foreign corporation until the company pays a dividend to its United States parent. So the tax can be (and often is) deferred indefinitely by keeping the earnings abroad.

Companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google and Pfizer have stockpiled hundreds of billions of dollars abroad in the hopes of bringing it home later at a reduced tax rate. Such earnings are often referred to as trapped foreign earnings. The tax bill they would have to pay to bring those earnings to the United States is leading some companies to reinvest the money abroad, even if they get a lower pretax return on investment. Companies often prefer leaving it overseas over paying the tax and returning the money to shareholders or reinvesting at home.

This foreign earnings “lock-out” effect is conceptually similar to the “lock-in” effect of a high capital gains rate on individual investors. If the tax rate on capital gains is too high, individual investors may hold on to appreciated assets rather than sell them, particularly if enticed by the possibility that their heirs would be able to avoid the tax when they inherit the assets. In the State of the Union address in January, President Obama coupled his proposed increase in the capital gains rate with a proposal to make death a taxable event for wealthy households, precisely to offset this concern about lock-in of previously untaxed assets.

The White House proposal on foreign earnings takes a similar approach, taxing foreign earnings up front and eliminating deferral. Taxing the old “trapped” foreign earnings at a 14 percent rate allows multinationals to repatriate the money and return it to shareholders via a dividend or redemption. On the other hand organizations can decide to reinvest the trusts in the United States. There would be no confinements on what an organization could do with the repatriated cash, not at all like some "expense occasion" recommendations that would make an effort not to utilize repatriated trusts to pay profits or reclamations. Going ahead, the 19 percent charge on outside profit turns into a kind of multinational corporate least assessment. Albeit entirely household enterprises would confront a 28 percent assessment rate (25 percent for assembling partnerships), multinationals would pay 28 percent on residential profit and 19 percent on outside income (with generally a 85 percent credit for remote assessments paid).

Obama has made fighting climate change a top priority in his final two years in office. The White House sees it as critical to his legacy. The interest in clean vitality advances would cover programs essentially at the divisions of Energy and Defense, the authorities said.  The $7.4 billion figure is an increment from the $6.9 billion proposed in Obama's monetary 2015 financial plan, an ascent of 7.2 percent, and over the $6.5 billion established by Congress during the current year. 

The organization is finishing questionable decides that will cut carbon dioxide outflows from force plants across the nation. The new reserve would give states motivators to rush that process or go more remote than their ordered cuts. The proposed $4 billion fund would be available to any state that applies, Janet McCabe, acting assistant Environmental Protection Agency Administrator in charge of air regulations, told reporters.

"What we will be looking for are states that will get (carbon emission) reductions earlier... or seek to go further than final guidelines require," she said.

States would have access to money that could be used to finance clean energy technologies, funding for low-income communities that face "disproportionate impacts from environmental pollution" and create incentives for businesses to back projects that cut down on emissions, blamed for global warming.

In addition, the budget provides $400 million to help communities assess flood risks. It also spells out the costs to the federal government of climate-related disasters, highlighting a fiscal argument to fight global warming. The United States has taken on over $300 billion in direct costs resulting from extreme weather and fire in the past decade, the budget says. The EPA's proposals to slash carbon and other air pollution from power plants and oil and gas facilities are a target of some lawmakers.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of coal-producing state Kentucky said Monday he will join the Senate committee that oversees the EPA's budget.

"You can guarantee that I will continue to fight back against this administration’s anti-coal jobs regulations on behalf of the Kentuckians I represent in the U.S. Senate," he said.
Acting EPA Deputy Administrator Stan Meiburg said the agency is already working with limited resources, including a "historically low" staffing level.

"This has made us focus on being more efficient... with the staff we have," he told reporters.The Department of Energy requested $29.9 billion for fiscal year 2016, an increase of $2.5 billion from the amount enacted for 2015, of which $10.7 billion would be spent to support scientific research, development and deployment of new clean energy technologies and advanced manufacturing.

Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said Monday the department's budget request highlights new investments in energy infrastructure technology to make the electric grid more resilient and reduce methane emissions from natural gas systems. To support the international component of Obama's climate strategy, the budget requests $500 million to support the United Nations' Green Climate Fund, the first tranche of the $3 billion pledged by the United States in November to help poor countries deal with climate change. Under present law, the 35 percent impose on repatriated profit coupled with inconclusive deferral urges American multinationals to move wage seaward, keep it seaward and for all time reinvest the income seaward. Some lawmakers have said they plan to block the funding.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

HOVID (7213.KL) : Breakout !!! Accelerate up from 0.405 to 0.425/0.475/0.560.


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Weekly Chart

In nutshell, Hovid is in 3 consecutive impulse waves degree which is pointing to uptrend, they are wave 3(long term),5(med Term),3( short Term).
I guess it is not a new method to analysed a stock by using 3 time frame, which is Long , med and short term. Most of the time, I am committing to buy a stock when 3 time frames is agreed to each other to pointing to same direction, occasionally I will buy when 2 were agreed...

Chart fig 1 below show 
1.) Green color wave is Long term trend, wave 3 development is on going, typical wave 3 is the longest and strongest wave compare to other waves, wave 3 is most preferable wave degree wish to ride by Elliot wave riders

2.) Magenta Color is Med term, Wave (4) was ended with short term wave, which wxyxz, this means wave (5) was kick start. which is moving toward 0.510/0.570

3.) Blue color is short term and wave 3 development is ongoing, you may not see it!!! because it is short term wave degree, you may not see it in the weekly chart, hence we need  unfold it in daily chart.

Fig 1

Daily Chart 

I used couple type of analysis method apply on Hovid, I hope to share my Technical point of view, how this stock transition from downtrend to side-way, than follow by being mark up...
Chart fig 2 shown the downtrend channel was violated, it is an indication of down trend ending.

Fig 2
Chart fig 3 is full of important information, 
1.) We do see 4 months long consolidation started on Oct till Jan to form and rectangle box , it is an indication of stock being accumulated by strong holder and prepared for next action.

2.) That is shake out activities happen on 16/17 Dec,  this time is typical stock transition from weak holder to strong holder, it could either is panic selling or spring test by smart money to shake out seller...

3.)Breakout happen started on last Friday (30/Jan), the break out is changing market stage from 1( 4 months accumulation activities) to stage 2( Market make up). the breakout candle is long white candle with massive volume, which means it is solid breakout

4.) RSI, MACD and Stochastic is all agree the stock bull ran is just started
Fig 3

Chart Fig 4 
Formed bullish inverted head and shoulder, Neck line at 0.405 and just breakout on last Friday. White candle with Massive volume, it is show very bullish signal
Fig 4

Chart Fig 5 show Support and Resistance
Fig 5
Support 1 : 0.400/0.395
Support 2: 0.365/0.370
Support 3: 0.345.

Resistance 1 : 0.425
Resistance 2 : 0.440
Resistance 3 : 0.460
Resistance 4 : 0.480

Chart Fig 6 show Wave 3 and Wave 5 Target prices

Fig 6

Chart Fig 7 show weekly Chart 
Fig 7
Wave 5 Target
Target 1 : 0.510
Target 2 : 0.570

Summary of Bullish Technical Justification 

1.) Elliot wave analysis showed 3(Long, Med and short term) consecutive waves degree pointing uptrend, which is a very bullish implication.
2.) Stage 1 accumulation ended on Friday(30/Jan) with break out  !!! break out with long white candle with massive volume
3.) Inverted head and shoulder formed, Neck line break out !!!
4.) RSI, MACD and Stochastic all agreed to the prices action, which is uptrend.

My Trade plan

1.) I will scale in during open market given the fact is very bullish implication
2.) I will collect it on weakness if it prices go down to Support 1 : 0.400/0.395 and Support 2: 0.365/0.370

Stop loss

I will Cut my position if the prices drop below 0.340.

My Profit Target 

Price at those Target or Resistance point/zone

Trailing Stop 

I will apply trailing stop after target reached or price break above the resistance to protect my profit.
Resistance 1 : 0.425
Resistance 2 : 0.440
Resistance 3 : 0.460
Resistance 4 : 0.480



(Free OF charge) Please register for KLSE Technical analysis on Feb 3, 2015 9:00 PM SGT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7846691484159716354

Agenda
1.) KLSE CI Index outlook
2.) MY Stock pick

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Trading Challenge
Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.
I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.

As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.