Thursday, January 29, 2015

Good news from US Federal Reserve

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Economists will get a glimpse into the overall health of the U.S. economy Wednesday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to release a statement following the Federal Open Market Committee's first two-day policy meeting of the year. Market professionals will analyze the statement, looking for clues as to when the central bank plans to raise interest rates and how deflationary concerns and the dramatic decline in oil prices could alter the Fed’s monetary policy decisions in 2015.
The Federal Reserve kept its options open on Wednesday, signaling that it would not raise short-term interest rates any earlier than June, while leaving unresolved how much longer it might be willing to wait before lifting its benchmark rate from near zero, where the central bank has held it for more than six years.
Treating the recent turmoil in markets as essentially meaningless noise, the Fed issued its most upbeat assessment of economic conditions since the recession, after its first policy-making meeting of the year, in a statement that noted solid economic growth and strong job growth. Oil prices slumped anew, with US crude futures hitting a near six-year lows after government data showed record-high inventories in the United States. US crude futures stood at $44.50, having sunk to as low as $44.08 on Wednesday, their lowest since April 2009.
But the optimistic tone was tempered by the Fed’s acknowledgment that inflation has slowed markedly in recent months and is likely to slow even more, making it harder for the Fed to determine how quickly to retreat from its stimulus campaign.
Fed officials for more than a year have pointed to the summer of 2015 as the likely time for the central bank to increase its benchmark interest rate, but investors are increasingly convinced that the sluggish pace of inflation will force the Fed to wait until fall at the earliest.
Asian shares retreated on Thursday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly lifted its view on the economy, signalling that the US central bank remains firmly on track with plans to raise interest rates this year. 

The Fed said falling energy prices boosted household purchasing power, even as it acknowledged a decline in certain inflation measures and added international developments would be taken into consideration. 

"The markets were a bit surprised that the Fed was more hawkish than expected, especially considering that many people had thought that the board members this year would be more dovish than last year's," said Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Okasan Securities. 

Four voting members from regional Feds at the policy committee this year are considered less hawkish than last year's rotating members.  A greater likelihood of higher US interest rates this year helped Asian stock indexes follow Wall Street into negative territory. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.7 per cent and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.4 per cent. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.1 per cent to a six-week low while the S&P 500 lost 1.4 per cent. 

The Fed's optimism and unwavering stance on future rate hikes contrasted with a recent spate of dovish policy shifts at many central banks around the world - from Europe to Canada to India. That helped the US dollar recoup some losses this week, with the dollar index against a basket of major currencies gaining 0.6 per cent to 94.627. The euro slipped to $1.1284 from a high of $1.1423 hit on Tuesday, with signs of tension in Greek financial markets adding to downward pressure. Greek short-term bond yields hit their highest since the country's 2012 debt restructuring and Greek shares tumbled 9 per cent to a 2 1/2-year low on Wednesday as the new government in Athens appeared to be squaring up for a fight with international creditors. 

The New Zealand dollar tumbled to a 3-1/2-year low on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dropped its tightening bias on official interest rates, instead signalling that the next move could be either up or down. 

Against the yen, the dollar was little changed at 117.51 yen as weakness in share prices helped to support the safe-haven Japanese currency. 

As share prices eased, US bond yields have fallen, with the 30-year yield hitting a record low of 2.273 per cent on Wednesday. The 10-year yield stood at 1.726 per cent, near this month's low of 1.698 per cent, which was its lowest level since May 2013. But US interest rate futures hardly budged. The Fed repeated it will be "patient in beginning to normalize" rates, although it dropped a reference that rates will be held at the current levels "for a considerable time" -- which many traders had taken to mean about six months. 

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Malaysia is recognized as country still attracting foreign investment


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Malaysia is still able to attract foreign investments amid the current global economic uncertainty, says Malaysian International Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Micci) president Simon Whitelaw.

He said there was still huge untapped business potential in Malaysia in addition to spacious growth opportunities for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the country.
"Business players should not be alarmed, but instead be more productive and efficient in cushioning the impact of the current economic downturn," he said.

Whitelaw said there was also a need to get SMEs to be more involved, for example in developing exports.

He added that at present, SMEs contributed just under 70% of Malaysia's exports.
He told reporters this after the official launch of the National Corporate Ethics Awards (NCEA) 2015 today.

He said cost-wise, although China and India were seen as more competitive, Malaysia was still seeing foreign companies setting up businesses in the country.

Tax incentives for principal hubs and projects that invest in innovation, technology, involving the creation of high-income jobs, have been introduced to accelerate the momentum in attracting high-value investments.

Malaysia only have five years left to achieve Vision 2020. More and more multi-national companies (MNCs) have supply chains spanning across various jurisdictions. Increasingly, MNCs are opting to set up a Principal Hub to house senior executives and decision-makers that will drive and manage their global supply chains.

These tax incentives will help in attracting MNCs to house their high-value functions and operations in Malaysia. This will bring numerous economic benefits, amongst others:
(1) creating high-income jobs,
(2) potentially influencing them to consider Malaysia as their first choice to source any support required for their global operations,
(3) helping stimulate ancillary services, such as logistics, banking services, etc.

The potential multiplier benefits to the economy are aplenty. Budget 2015 also introduced a 200% capital allowance on automation expenditure to encourage automation, especially for labour-intensive industries.

"So, lets not be too negative," Whitelaw said.

The NCEA 2015 is a private sector-led initiative designed to identify companies who can serve as role models while stimulating a proactive anti-bribery role and ethics in the private sector.

As Malaysia's economy continues to reap the benefits of international partnerships, local property development firms are creating opportunities across the country for overseas investors. "Malaysia's property sector continues to attract foreign investors, and still has significant growth potential," says Datuk Syed Mohamed Bin Syed Ibrahim, president and CEO of Iskandar Investment Berhad. The company has played a key role in creating Iskandar Malaysia, a development region in Johor state that lies on Singapore's opposite shore across the Strait of Johor. Iskandar is a mix of brownfield and greenfield developments covering an area of around 2,200 square kilometers, three times the size of Singapore.

Datuk Syed Mohamed's role as CEO includes the strategic planning and development with federal and state agencies, global partners and other key stakeholders of a number of crucial and "catalyzing" projects that have contributed towards Iskandar Malaysia's ongoing growth.

He says that Iskandar Investment Berhad's mission is to imbed within Iskandar Malaysia strategic projects to turn almost 2,300 square kilometer development area into a world-class city by 2025. "This involves tapping into the Malaysian government's National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) and adopting several incentivized clusters such as infrastructure development, tourism and leisure, education, healthcare and wellness, and the creative industries to drive population and business growth. Iskandar Investment has also created Edu-City?, a broad multi-campus community that has attracted the attention of some of the most renowned foreign universities from Australia, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands; we also welcome Chinese universities to be part of this ambitious program."
Iskandar is flanked by five ports, three in Malaysia and two in Singapore, and is close to two airports, one in Malaysia and the other in Singapore. It also sits between two major highway bridges linking Malaysia and Singapore.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Chinese Currency Plunges To Peg Limit Against US Dollar, as Euro Gains on Greece


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The euro rebounded from an 11-year low and European equities rose amid speculation fallout from the election of the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece will be contained. U.S. stocks fluctuated, as energy producers advanced with oil to offset a drop in technology shares.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined less than 0.1 percent at 11:45 a.m. in New York, following the gauge’s first weekly gain this year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.6 percent to extend a seven-year high on Friday. Europe’s shared currency strengthened 0.7 percent to $1.1285. Greek stocks fell with bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose three basis points to 1.82 percent. The ruble tumbled 2.3 percent as fighting in Ukraine spread. Oil rose after OPEC’s secretary general said insufficient investment could push prices to $200 a barrel.

The New York Stock Exchange plans to operate on a normal schedule on Monday and Tuesday amid forecasts for a blizzard that may dump as much as two feet of snow from New York to Boston. Greek Prime Minister-elect Alexis Tsipras’ mandate is now to confront the nation’s program of austerity, imposed in return for pledges of 240 billion euros in aid since May 2010. German business confidence rose for a third month as falling energy costs and anticipation of more stimulus helped lift optimism about the economy.
The S&P 500 rallied 1.6 percent last week after European Central Bank President Mario Draghisaid it plans to buy up to 1.14 trillion euros ($1.28 trillion) of private and public securities.

The Greek elections “infused a little bit more risk into the market, that’s why we’ve pulled back,”Michael James, a Los Angeles-based managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc., said in a phone interview. “More people are focusing on a pretty busy earnings calendar this week and the Fed commentary on Wednesday. Those are going to be the much bigger focus for traders.” Microsoft Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. are among companies reporting earnings today. United Technologies Corp. changed its plans and will release results after the close of trading today instead of tomorrow morning.

China, a close trading partner of Greece and the EU's second-biggest trading partner behind the US, is believed to largely remain impervious to any direct impact of the victory Syriza Party.  But increased uncertainty in the Greek economy may have an impact on China's investments in Greece, Xu Gao, the Beijing-based chief economist at China Everbright Securities, told the Global Times on Monday. Accords worth an estimated total of 4.7 billion euros in fields such as energy, shipping and infrastructure were signed during Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Greece in 2014. There are concerns that the eurozone may risk a potential breakup if Greece's new leadership eventually ends austerity measures, because the global financial market would take a big hit, Tang Jianwei, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications in Shanghai, told the Global Times. He explained that China is likely to see its foreign exchange reserves, an amount of which are euro-denominated, affected. By the end of December 2014, China's foreign reserves, the world's largest, stood at $3.84 trillion, according to the latest data from China's central bank. 

A breakdown of the reserves by currency has yet to be revealed by the central bank, but it is estimated that a quarter are in euros.  

The Dubai Financial Market Index slid 3.6 percent, the most this year, and Abu Dhabi’s benchmark gauge lost 0.8 percent. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose 0.7 percent trading resumed following the death of King Abdullah on Jan. 23. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.9 percent to the highest close since August 2009, with trading volumes 23 percent less than the 30-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong dropped 0.3 percent, ending a four-day rally.

Commodities have fallen 3.6 percent this month, heading for their first January decline in five years amid surging supplies of crude oil and slowing global economic growth. Copper gained 0.3 percent after sliding more than 3 percent to the weakest since July 2009. Gold dropped 0.7 percent to $1,283.80 an ounce and silver declined 0.9 percent. U.S. natural gas futures fell 3.2 percent to $2.864 per million British thermal units in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Plunging Oil Prices, Rising Debt Leaves Asia Staring at Deflation: Morgan Stanley


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Asia’s rapid accumulation of debt in recent years is holding back central banks from easing monetary policy to fight the risk of deflation, endangering private investment needed to boost faltering growth, according to Morgan Stanley. Debt to gross domestic product ratio in the region excluding Japan rose to 203 percent in 2013 from 147 percent in 2007, with most of the increase led by companies, analysts led by Chetan Ahya in Hong Kong wrote in a report today. The ratio is close to or has exceeded 200 percent in seven of 10 nations including China and South Korea, they said.
Deflation risk is spreading from Europe to Asia as oil prices plunge, raising the specter of companies and consumers postponing spending and threatening a recovery in the global economy. Asia could take its cue from the U.S. where a policy of keeping real rates low after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis encouraged private-sector investment and boosted productive growth, Morgan Stanley said.
“When real rates are high, only the public sector or government-linked companies will take on leverage,” the Morgan Stanley economists wrote in the report. The key concern with an approach of keeping real rates at elevated levels is that the private sector will continue to be hesitant to take up new investment, which is critical for reviving productivity, the report said.
Asia’s policy makers are balancing the need to support domestic demand and curbing debt and asset bubbles. While China cut its one-year lending rate in November, its policy makers have held off on broader easing measures as they sought to avoid exacerbating a build-up in nonperforming loans.
Leverage in the region picked up sharply from 147 percent of GDP in 2007 to 203 percent of GDP in 2013. Seven out of ten economies in the region now have debt to GDP ratios close to or above 200 percent (only India, Indonesia and Philippines have ratios well below 200 percent), a level that warrants close monitoring in our view. Deflation: The weak domestic demand growth and issues related to growth mix have meant that the region continues to face entrenched disinflation pressures. In the context of a high debt stock almost all across the region, the rising deflation risks have compounded the challenges of debt management by pushing down nominal GDP growth and pushing up real rates
Oil prices that were over $100 in July 2014 are currently trading at around $48. According to a report byBloomberg, the deflation risk is spreading from Europe to Asia. The risk is reportedly raising concerns about companies and consumers postponing their expenditure. Such a scenario may make the global economic recovery difficult. The central banks in Asia are reportedly finding it difficult to follow an easy monetary policy. The report cites an analysis by Morgan Stanley that says companies in Asia have accumulated a lot of debt over the past few years. The huge debt may be stopping central banks in the region to take steps to contain deflationary risks in their respective economies.
 India, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have reportedly kept the interest rates unchanged in the last month. China has cut its lending rate, but the country is reportedly holding back from taking more monetary measures for fear of increasing non-performing assets of banks. Most Asian countries are major importers of oil. The fall in the commodity's price in the past few months is expected to push prices down in the region. But slow economic growth and deflationary risks are a cause for concern for investors. The Asian Development Bank has reportedly cut the growth forecast for the region for 2014 and 2015.
With oil slumping, Singapore’s consumer prices fell in November from a year earlier for the first time since 2009, while price gains in Thailand eased to the slowest pace in December in more than five years. To allay concerns on leverage, China could tighten rules to allow faster recognition of non-performing debt in the corporate sector, Morgan Stanley said. While this could lead to a period of sharper slowdown in credit and GDP growth, it will reduce risks and open up the door for aggressive monetary as well as fiscal easing, it said.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

GADANG (9261.KL) : Breakout !!! Accelerating up from RM 1.50 to RM1.60/1.70/2:05

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I am a typical trader in stock,commodity and Forex exchange market, hence I learned many type of indicator, chart pattern, price vs volume action, trading strategy, emotion control, money management and etc,.,.with all the information and knowledge I acquired is just insufficient for me build a trading plan, but it not allow me to make some consistence income, until one day I meet a  trader(I call him Brother) who are willing to coach and share with me about his N years trading experience with real time coaching... thing change and my results improved exponential...
Some of the key take away message and I learn from my brother is
1. Trading is dealing with Fear, greed and ego,
2. The worse enemy in trading is EGO, if we are wrong in analysis, cut the loss and move on to next.
3. Be humble and it is key character to be successful trader...
4. Successful trader is less Emotion.
5. etc...

Weekly Chart

1st thing 1st !!! I like to look at the weekly trend to determine the direction of the stock, right after observed potential growth stock in small time frame, Because it is very crucial to increase winning probability.
Chart # 1

The chart # 1 above is weekly trend,
1.) We can see it was just completed correction wave, I label it as (A), (B) and(C), what does it means ABC correction ended ? typically for next couple of week should form an impulse wave up. which is wave 1 uptrend to min of RM 1.80.
2.) Bullish divergent formed, it is a indication of bear strength is weakening and bull power is taking over.
3.)Morning star appeared at the Wave (C). it is a strong indication bottom already reached.
4.)Volume is picking up on last weeks and prices is accelerated which is a strong buying interest established.

Daily Chart

Let unfold the chart from weekly down to daily. each of the impulse wave typically had internal wave structure.
Chart # 2
Refer to the chart # 2 above, I did label (Blue Box)Wave (3)'s internal structure with magenta color front for the learning purpose, you can see an complete wave counter is started with impulse Wave 1,2,3,4,5 and ended with correction wave ABC, right after the correction wave down ended, the impulse wave up with begin.

Chart # 3
Refer to chart # 3, the blue box is indicate latest wave degree
1.) Major trend wave 2 ended with ABC, Wave 3 up projection will be RM 2.8
2.) Med term trend is forming wave (1) up, the projection will be RM 1.8/2.05
3.) Short term trend is forming wave 3  up, the projection will be RM 1.6/1.75/2.05

3 consecutive wave degree is pointing to north and it is bullish implication, this type of trading opportunity is classified by me is aggressive type, because combine a Bottom fishing( Major and med term trend), with (short term) wave 3 breakout strategy.

In summary, 3 consecutive wave degree is pointing to up trend, it is bullish implication.

Chart # 4
Chart # 4 above is showed resistance RM 1.45 broken and headed to downtrend trend-line, I am anticipated it will breakaway from RM 1.52 and heading to RM 1.60 and RM 1.75, reason was short term wave 3 was formed after it break away from resistance RM 1.45.

Support Resistance 

Resistance # 1 : RM 1.62
Resistance # 2 : RM 1.70
Support # 1 : RM 1.50
Support # 2 : RM 1.45
Support # 3 : RM 1.31

Projection

1.) Major trend wave 2 ended with ABC, Wave 3 up projection will be RM 2.8
2.) Med term trend is forming wave (1) up, the projection will be RM 1.8/2.05
3.) Short term trend is forming wave 3  up, the projection will be RM 1.6/1.75/2.05

Technical Justification on bullish implication 

1.) Long correction wave ABC trend ended with bullish divergence
2.)Med term wave 1 and short term wave 3 is forming and point to go up
3.)Weekly chart formed morning star and MCAD cross signal is developing.
4.) Down-trend trend line is challenge/Breal by the wave 3 up. most likely prices will accelerate up.

My Trade plan

I will scale in as I am anticipated it will breakaway from down-trend line, I will collect on any weakness near support area which RM1.50 and RM1.45,

MY Profit will be near all Resistance and Projection point which were RM 1.60/1.70/1.75/1.80/2.05

My Stop loss price drop below RM 1.30

Trading Challenge
Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.
I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.

As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.




Friday, January 23, 2015

Malaysian Palm Oil Price weakens on technical selling


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Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in over a week on Friday as volatile crude oil prices and lacklustre export demand dampened buying interest in the tropical oil, dragging the contract to its biggest weekly drop in seven. Palm, the world's most traded vegetable oil, has been propped up by monsoon flooding, which dented output and stockpiles in No.2 grower Malaysia, but traders remain wary as global commodity markets are roiled by an oil price rout.

The ringgit's decline to its weakest since April 2009 was not enough to limit losses in time, traders said.  "Although the ringgit is weak, the market could not keep up. After prices broke 2,300 ringgit, heavy liquidation and the stop-loss order were triggered," said one trader with a foreign commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur. "The ringgit depreciating and floods will bring down output and end-stocks, but you have problems in the world. Demand is not picking up," said a trader with a foreign commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur. The benchmark April contract was down 1.4 percent to 2,311 ringgit ($650) per tonne to close at their lowest since Jan. 7. It fell 1.6 percent this week, its biggest drop since end-November, after failing to build on three straight weeks of gains. Traded volume stood at 78,450 lots of 25 tonnes, more than double the typical 35,000 lots.   

Market participants say palm has struggled over the past two weeks to get a firm grip above 2,380 ringgit, as concern over dwindling demand from key buyers chased away follow-through buying. The contract hit a six-month high of 2,394 ringgit late on Thursday but dropped as low as 2,298 ringgit on Friday.Cargo surveyors reported that overseas sales of Malaysian palm products fell between 12 and 13 percent in the first half of January compared to December.  

Analysts say flooding in Sarawak, Malaysia's second-largest palm producing state, may not be as damaging to output as initially feared, when thunderstorms and rain triggered flash floods across some plantations.   

"Many areas in Sarawak remain flooded following heavy continuous rainfall over the last three days," said Affin Hwang Capital Research in a note on Wednesday. 

"However, as yet, the operations of the timber and plantation companies have not been seriously affected by the floods." The seasonal downturn in output which typically occurs around October-to-March will "only be exacerbated by the disruptions in collection, transport and processing caused by the lingering effects of the flooding," the bureau said in report.  "Reportedly, in some areas, it may take up to two-to-three months to repair damaged infrastructure."

The benchmark April contract was down 2.0 percent to 2,273 ringgit ($629) per tonne by Wednesday's close, with prices touching 2,270 ringgit, their lowest since Jan. 5. Traded volume was at 66,335 lots of 25 tonnes, nearly double the usual average of 35,000 lots. The Malaysian ringgit hit a near six-year low of 3.6250 per dollar as Fitch Ratings warned of a downgrade to the country's rating, following government moves to cut its 2015 growth forecast, trim spending and widen its fiscal deficit target. The slump in the ringgit also stoked worries over a gloomy global economic outlook that could hurt commodity prices, including palm oil, the world's most traded vegetable oil.
Elsewhere, Indonesian crude palm oil output is estimated to have fallen around 6 percent in December from November, hit by a seasonal downturn in production, a Reuters survey of leading industry officials showed. Growers in Malaysia's Borneo region are bracing for the impact of monsoon rains that have triggered flooding in some parts of top palm-growing state Sabah. Malaysia's meteorological department flashed "orange stage" warnings on its website late on Thursday for heavy rain over Sarawak until Jan. 17. 

In other markets, Brent crude oil futures rose above $49 a barrel on Friday as the IEA said the tide of recent price slumps may turn, although analysts said a strong rebound anytime soon was unlikely as global output continues to outweigh demand. In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for March was nearly flat in late Asian trade, while the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange eased 0.1 percent.     

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Gain and Loss as oil price rebound


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Crude oil surged the most in more than 2 1/2 years after falling to the lowest since 2009.
Oil futures rose 5.6 percent in New York and 4.5 percent in London. Options expiration bolstered activity, while technical indicators signaled that crude was due for a rebound. Futures have dropped the past six months, the longest stretch in six years. During this period West Texas Intermediate posted five weekly gains before resuming its slide.
“We’ve fallen so far so fast that some folks think it’s time to call a bottom,” Michael Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale in New York, said by phone. “It’s way premature to say the bear market is over. We’ve been stair-stepping down all along and at several stages the market has had to take a breather.”

Oil slumped almost 50 percent last year, the most since 2008, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to cut output even as the U.S. pumped at the fastest rate in more than three decades. WTI briefly traded higher than Brent yesterday for the first time since July 2013, a signal that Saudi Arabia’s strategy of curbing shale output growth is working, according to Societe Generale. Most Asian stocks markets gained on Monday in morning trade, led by materials companies, after oil rebounded and US consumer confidence jumped to an 11-year high.

However, investment in North Sea projects "will be diminished" even as oil prices recover, according to the boss of one of the world's biggest oil majors.

Patrick Pouyanné, the chief executive of Total, said the days of quick and handsome returns from mature fields such as the North Sea were being cut short by the recent collapse in the oil price, which has led many firms to reduce investment in the region.
He added that tax sweeteners from the UK government might not be enough to revive the industry, as oil majors faced lower returns in the "fight against the decline of mature fields".

"I think it's in the interest of the country to develop its taxation system if it wants to encourage investment, but the allocation of capital expenditure for these types of mature fields will be diminished for sure, so we have to see what will be the answer," he said.

Glen Hodgson, the Conference Board’s senior vice-president and chief economist, said that a recession in Alberta is on the way even if oil rebounds to $65, given that many large oil and gas producers have pared back their spending plans for the coming year and some have announced layoffs.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery jumped $1.31 to finish trade at $47.78 a barrel, putting in only a partial rebound from Tuesday's $2.30 loss.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for delivery March climbed $1.04 to settle at $49.03 a barrel. The February contract expired on Tuesday at $46.39, down $2.30 and not far from its lowest level since March 2009.

There are two import matters for the energy market on Thursday, the ECB decision and the US storage report, said Bob Yawger of Mizuho Securities.

Investors widely expect the ECB will announce a major asset-purchase program, or quantitative easing, after its monetary policy meeting Thursday, in a bid to revive growth in the ailing eurozone.

Crude oil prices fell to a fresh five-year low this week, trading Tuesday as low as $44.20 per barrel. Then on Wednesday, just as drillers and oil investors were in their deepest despair, prices exploded more than 5 percent higher, the biggest rally in over two years.Going forward, the rebound has given some oil bulls hope that the market’s long decline may finally be over, but other analysts warn that the global supply is still overwhelming and growing, which could cause prices to drop to new lows in the near future. Lower crude prices could further discount gasoline to the delight of American drivers.

IRIS Forming Cup with Handler ?

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Technical sharing !!! respond to some of the reader request, I am decided to post some good example for my follower to learn, the chart below is very class example of Cup with Handle. if the prices break above $0,340, it out of cup and handle Pattern to possible target of $0.36/$0.40. this pattern is pretty reliable and it work in difference type of financial component.

Other than Cup and handle, the chart below also showed wave 4 consolidation, today candle is show white solder with volume, once the price break above $0,340, Most likely the target $0.36/$0.40 will be reach.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Opportunities for Mid-size businesses in ASEAN


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A study by Standard Chartered showed that Asean is a popular business destination for Malaysian mid-sized companies with 74% of companies surveyed doing business in Asean markets.
The study covered 300 chief executive officers and chief financial officers of companies with an annual turnover of between US$30 million and US$100 million (RM108.78 million and RM362.6 million) across four of Standard Chartered's Asian markets: China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Together, these countries have a population of more than 625 million with an economy valued at $2.4 trillion.
With a youthful population of more than 600 million, an estimated GDP of over $2.2 trillion, strong links to its well-to-do neighbours and plans to become a single market by the end of 2015, ASEAN is brimming with opportunity for Canadians, according to a recent study. As ASEAN grows, recent research shows the region now receives more foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows than China. In 2013, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, known as the ASEAN-5 countries, received $128.4 billion in foreign investment, up 7% from the previous year and topping China’s FDI receipts of $117.6 billion, which declined 2.9% from 2012.5
ASEAN was also home to huge, market-moving IPOs in 2013, including a $2.1 billion listing for BTS Rail Mass Transit Growth Infrastructure Fund in Thailand and a $2.6 billion IPO for Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Singapore’s largest-ever real estate investment trust listing.
In terms of commercial opportunities, the report titled ASEAN Commercial Opportunities Study for Canadian Business notes that global attention in recent years has tended to focus on China and India, but many see ASEAN as an alternative that offers preferential access to those markets. In its 20-year "march towards economic integration," ASEAN has signed free trade agreements with "economically significant neighbours," it notes, including China and India as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. The promise of regional integration has also increased international interest in ASEAN as an investment destination.
Standard Chartered in a statement today said the study showed that 78% of Malaysian respondents were confident in their growth prospects.

"Mid-sized companies in Asia are highly confident in their ability to grow, and alongside domestic expansion are increasingly looking to international markets to build further momentum," it said.
Global head of commercial clients Andy Bainbridge said mid-sized companies were crucial engines of economic growth and job creation across Asia and increasingly active in global trade.
"This study shows that slowing growth in the region has not dented their confidence in the future.
"Far from it, these dynamic companies are looking to take on more workers and expand into new markets, growing their turnover in the next five years," he added. – Bernama, January 21, 2015.
Collectively, the ASEAN nations are America’s third-largest Asian trading partner, after China and Japan, and the largest destination of U.S. investment in Asia, according to Alex Feldman, president and CEO of the US-ASEAN Business Council. U.S. businesses have long known about the strategic and market value of Southeast Asia; as of the end of 2012, the U.S. has invested more than $190 billion cumulatively in the 10 nations of ASEAN. That’s more than U.S. companies have invested in Brazil, Russia, India and China combined, Feldman wrote in an email in August. 

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Malaysian Government cutting growth forecast as Ringgit shrinking

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Malaysia on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for this year and announced a slew of austerity measures as tumbling oil prices force the government to slash spending. Prime Minister Najib Razak said the government's 2015 budget, announced in October, was based on oil prices averaging $100 a barrel but this projection was no longer realistic as global crude prices have dropped by over 50 percent. State oil company Petronas contributes about a third of Malaysian government revenue. The dramatic slide in oil prices since the middle of last year has strained the finances of oil producing countries from the Middle East to Russia and Venezuela. It is also reducing costs for households and businesses, providing a boost that is partly offsetting weakness in the global economy.

Malaysia's ringgit hit a near six-year low on Tuesday after the government adjusted its economic targets to cope with sliding oil prices, while most emerging Asian currencies fell on the dollar's broad strength and a slowing global economy. The country increased its fiscal deficit target to 3.2 percent of gross domestic product for 2015 and cut its forecasts for economic growth and inflation to adjust its budget after a sharp fall in earnings from oil and gas, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced earlier. 
Najib, who is also finance minister, said the government lowered its oil price forecast to $55 a barrel, which will lead to a revenue shortfall of 8.3 billion ringgit ($2.3 billion) despite savings from the removal of fuel subsidies last month. He said development spending would still be maintained at 48.5 billion ringgit ($13.5 billion) but the government will slash its operating expenditure, initially set at 223.4 billion ringgit ($62.3 billion), by 5.5 billion ringgit ($1.5 billion). The economy is forecast to grow between 4.5 and 5.5 percent this year, while the budget deficit is expected to equal 3.2 percent of gross domestic product. Earlier, the government forecast the economy to expand 5-6 percent and the budget deficit to narrow to 3 percent from 3.5 percent in 2014.
Without austerity measures, Najib said the budget deficit would have shot up to 3.9 percent of GDP this year.
"We are not in crisis," Najib said in a televised speech. "We are taking pre-emptive measures following the changes in the external global economic landscape which is beyond our control. This is to ensure that our economy continues to attain a respectable and reasonable growth."
Malaysia's ringgit has depreciated by 10 percent against the dollar in the last four months and the country's current account surplus is shrinking. Najib said the financial system was still functioning in an "orderly manner" and voiced confidence that the ringgit, currently hovering at 3.60 to the dollar, would recover over time. The sudden revisions to the budget were criticized by opposition lawmakers. Since the earlier budget was approved by Parliament in October, opposition lawmaker Tony Pua said Najib's ruling party, in power for nearly six decades, should have also sought approval from Parliament to revise the budget.

He said the decision showed the government's "utter contempt and disdain" for the legislature. Najib said the government will trim spending on supplies and services such as overseas travel and the use of professional services to help save 1.6 billion ringgit ($446 million). Transfers and grants to government-linked bodies and agencies will be reviewed to save a hefty 3.2 billion ringgit ($892 million), he said. A three-month national service program, part of boot camp training for 18-year-olds, will be deferred to save 400 million ringgit ($111 million), while postponing purchases of non-critical assets will save 300 million ringgit ($84 million), he said.

The greenback rose versus the euro ahead of possible stimulus by the European Central bank on Thursday, while it hit a one-week high against the yen on short-covering. The won came under further pressure on the yen's weakness, given export competition between South Korea and Japan. South Korea's importers also bought the dollar for payments. China's economic growth in the fourth quarter slightly beat market expectations, but the world's second-largest economy in 2014 expanded at its slowest pace in 24 years, cementing concerns over a slowdown in the economy. Adding to the gloom, the International Monetary Fund lowered its projection for global economic growth this year.

"China recorded the slowest growth in 24 years and the IMF just cut global growth forecast. How can we be long Asian currencies?" said a senior Malaysian bank trader in Kuala Lumpur.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Fall in the price of oil and gas, new opportunity in energy technology


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Many people think the oil price has crashed, but it has just gone back to its long-term historical trend, according to Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. That makes a barrel of oil at around US$50 just about right based on a 100-year average, said Sharma, who manages US$25 billion as head of emerging markets.
“The price of oil is returning to normal in its long-term 100-year history,” Sharma said in an interview from New York. “We tend to have a short memory and we tend to forget that the price of oil breached the US$50 a barrel level only a decade ago.”
Brent crude oil futures, which trade in London and are used as a benchmark to set prices for more than half of the world’s oil, reached a record of US$139.83 a barrel on June 30, 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. By Jan. 13, the price had plunged 67 percent to US$46.59.
The plunging price of oil, coupled with advances in clean energy and conservation, offers politicians around the world the chance to rationalise energy policy. They can get rid of billions of dollars of distorting subsidies, especially for dirty fuels, whilst shifting taxes towards carbon use. A cheaper, greener and more reliable energy future could be within reach. An International Energy Agency report Friday shows the first tentative signs that the strategy may work.
"The oil sell off has cut expectations of 2015 non-OPEC supply growth by 350,000 barrels per day since last month to 950,000 barrels per day," the IEA said. "Effects on North American supply are so far limited to [95,000 barrels per day and 80,000 barrels per day] to the Canadian and U.S. forecasts, respectively."
The impact of cheap oil would ordinarily be higher, the IEA said, but supply growth isn't slowing more quickly in North America because many producers appeared to be well hedged against short-term price drop. 2014 was a record year for oil output for non-OPEC nations, with growth of 1.9 million barrels per day, the IEA said in its report. Two other major oil nations, Colombia and Russia, have also seen their growth output slashed, by 175,000 barrels in the former and 30,000 in the latter. OPEC nations, meanwhile, are actually pumping out more oil, up by 80,000 barrels a day to 30.48 million for the cartel as a whole. The biggest contributor to that increase is Iraq, which is currently pumping out more oil than at any other point in the last 35 years. Now new factors are in play. 
Technological change has broken the power of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to keep the oil price high. Hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling have turned America into a big oil producer, with 4m barrels a day coming from sources which used to be deemed “unconventional”. The boom in producing oil and gas from shale has yet to spread to other countries. America enjoys some big advantages, such as open spaces, accommodating laws, a well-developed supply chain and abundant finance for risky projects. So far it has refrained from exporting its crude oil or natural gas, but exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will start this year. Increased trade in LNG will create a more global gas market and greater resilience of supply, undermining Russia’s pipeline monopoly in Europe. America is already exporting lightly refined oil.
Those tentative signs of a rebalancing in the market were a positive for the oil price, which gained 75 cents to $47 US a barrel for the North American benchmark known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI. 
In its January report, the IEA said it could see the foundation of a rebound in the oil market some time in the second half of 2015. If and when that happens, it won't be because there is less oil being pumped, but rather because cheap prices will encourage demand as the economy grows because of cheap energy.
"With a few notable exceptions such as the United States, lower prices do not appear to be stimulating demand just yet," the IEA said.
Until that happens, the IEA is expecting low oil prices to persist.
"How low the market's floor will be is anybody's guess. But the sell-off is having an impact," the IEA said. "A price recovery — barring any major disruption — may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn," said the agency.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Surge of Swiss Franc Triggers Earthquake in Forex Market

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The Swiss National Bank caused one of the biggest earthquakes in the global currency markets since the financial crisis as it gave up defending the Swiss franc against investors desperate for a safe haven against the eurozone debt crisis. It ditched its three-year-old cap of Swfr1.20 against the euro, imposed to stave off the invasion of cash-seeking protection from turbulent markets. Within seconds, the “Swissie” soared nearly 30% against the single currency with one investor describing the move as “like detonating a stick of dynamite in a dam”. The pound also plunged, along with all other major currencies.

Banks, brokers and individual investors were left with hundreds of millions of dollars in losses a day after an unexpected surge in the Swiss franc sent shock waves through markets. FXCM Inc., a major U.S. retail foreign-exchange broker, emerged as the biggest victim so far and had to be rescued by an emergency $300 million lifeline from investment firm Leucadia National Corp. Shares of FXCM, one of the largest retail currency brokers in the world, were suspended on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday after the company said client losses on Swiss franc trades threatened to put it in violation of regulatory capital rules. The two-year loan, with an initial interest rate of 10%, is “designed to maintain FXCM’s financial strength and allow it to prosper going forward,” said Leucadia Chief Executive Richard Handler .

Retail foreign exchange broker FXCM got a $300 million bailout on Friday after taking huge losses on the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) shock decision to drop its three-year-old peg of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Leucadia National invested $300 million cash in FXCM in exchange for a $300 million senior secured term loan with a two-year term and a 10 percent coupon. If FXCM is sold Leucadia will get a portion of the proceeds. (The terms of the final announcement differed somewhat from a draft obtained earlier in the day). FXCM shares plunged more than 70 percent in afterhours trading Friday. The stock was halted for the entirety of the regular session.
"Leucadia's support and this financing are by far the best alternative for FXCM, our customers, our shareholders, and all other relevant constituencies," FXCM CEO Drew Niv said in a statement.
FXCM warned Thursday evening that clients owed it $225 million and that it may be in breach of some capital requirements. The stock fell 90 percent in premarket trading Friday before being halted. 
As recently as last January, the European Central Bank ranked FXCM as the world's third-largest retail foreign exchange broker. The rescue came just hours after foreign exchange broker Alpari UK entered insolvency following the Swiss National Bank's decision. Citigroup has also lost $150 million to $200 million on forex trading because of the Swiss moves, a source told CNBC, demonstrating the magnitude of impacts on the markets.
Rich Repetto, Sandler O'Neill principal, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Friday that this "may be the event of the year when you talk about market movements." Repetto also said that leverage numbers need to be reexamined by regulators to help prevent these types of reactions in the future. The SNB said that linking the Swiss franc to the euro meant the currency had fallen dangerously far against the dollar.
“In these circumstances the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified,” it explained.
Simon Smith, chief economist at currency dealer FxPro, said: “The Swiss central bank has decided this is a battle it can’t win given the ECB is likely to do QE next week or at least in March.” He added that “pressure had been building” on the currency cap due to the swissie’s traditional status as a  safe haven. 
“But at this point in time, the SNB has broken a dam wall and the waters have flooded out.” Foreign exchange expert Gain Capital’s research director, Kathleen Brooks, added: “If the SNB is so spooked it is disbanding with a policy that it has held dear since 2011, then the rest of the market may want to reconsider their expectations for next week’s ECB meeting.”

Saturday, January 17, 2015

MAGNA PRIMA BHD : Moving Up From 0.95 to 1.05/1.12/1.18/1.27 ?


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Key success factor  in stock market trading or investment,
Some of the key factor to determine how successful a trader  is 
1. Consistency about his/her stock selection criteria( trade plan)
2. The wining trade can be reproduce ?
3. The self discipline can't be dis-countered
4......5..6.7...9
these are  the recipes will ensure us to make consistent profit in long ran.

Let discuss about consistency, in order achieve consistency about stock selection, I like to choose those stock is clear and easy for me to identify and no second guess what is the set up pattern ? Wave counter and etc...

Magna is one of the good example to share about this topic, because the trade set up is clear and easy to identify.
Downtrend trend line broken
looking at the chart below, we do see a big candle gap up with substantial vol(relatively compare the pass 30 days data) and breakout away from the downtrend trend line and it is an indication of downtrend is ending,

History will repeat by it self !!! look at the chart below, the candler label by rectangle Box, it is very similar and can said is same signature, right after breakaway from the downtrend trend line, it does went through couple days correction( it is a process to get rid of the supply), which prepared for next move up, most likely it will follow the foot step


Bullish Divergent was formed


Bullish divergent formation completed, sign of bear strength is weakening.... bull is taking over the game.

Elliot Wave formed  Zig Zag(ABC)
The chart below demonstrated  many time zig zag formation and name it as ABC also, it has been defined as a sharp corrective pattern, which wave A and C is TREND wave, and wave B does not retrace more 61.8% of wave A, it most common corrective pattern.

Support Resistance
Immediate Resistance= 0.95
Psychological  resistance = 1.00
Resistance Zone # 1= 1.05-1.065
Resistance Zone # 2 = 1.18-1.19
Resistance Zone # 3 = 1.27-1.29
Immediate Support = 0.86

ABC Target  Projection
Target 1 : 1.02
Target 2 : 1.12
Target 3 : 1.27

Summary of Magna is Bullish implication base on Technical Judgement 
1. Downtrend trend line broken and it sign of bear trend is ending and bull most likely will take over
2. Similar trend line breakaway on previous downtrend, it showed upward accelerated 
3. Bullish divergence formation 
4. ABC or Zig Zag formation, it is ready to break away from 0.95 and heading to target of 1.02/1.12/1.27


My trade plan 
I am anticipated it will breakaway from 0.95 and heading to 1.02/1.12/1.27. 
Immediate Support right after break out is 0.95 and 0.86. 
After the break out happen on 0.95, Any weakness will provide opportunity for me to buy at support which is 0.95.
MY Stop loss is below 0.83 
My profit target is 1.05/1.12/1.18/1.27.

Trading Challenge
Many people committed to buy stock is very easy, when come to profit taking and cut loss is one of the most difficult part in trading world, talking about profit taking is dealing with greed and stop loss is dealing with fear, cutting loss is a must in trading world because it stopping my capital continue to loss, in order to stay alive in trading world... it is a must !!! it is not an option, else I suggest you get out of the trading and you are not suitable.
I wanted to used simple example to share on the cut loss ... you bought an egg and prepare to  used it for fry rice, some how you notice/suspect the eggs you pick was/may turn bad.... the question now is shall out throw/scrap the bad one and pick another .... or nevermind bet or hope the suspicious "bad" egg will be good and risk the good rice which is ready to cook ? you make the call... I am believed in order to win I got to know how to prevent I am loss in the market... if I notice I am wrong... I got to admit and cut the loss and make a next move.

As a reminder for myself
I am always remind myself If the trend is go again me and violated my SL limit, I will cut loss base on the risk preference.
Stop Loss is painful process because I making loss, but it is necessary to take it, it is very important because it protect my capital to ensure I am stay in the market.

DISCLAIMER:
Stock analysis and comments presented on klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com are solely for education purpose only. They do not represent the opinions of klseelwavetrading.blogspot.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.
Investors should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into an expert's stock analysis or opinion.
All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation.