Thursday, September 4, 2014

KPS : Small correction is just aroung the corner ...I am took my Profit.

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Looking at the big picture( in fact is med term), we can see the prices action is heading to head and shoulder neck line, I had draw a horizontal and trend neck line. technically it will have a rebound at these levels( it will break all the way if that is news announce), base on my past experience after the rebound it will retry the neck line. if pass it will continue the bull run and heading toRM 2.2 and 2.5 area.
I did Elliot wave count assessment typically we are in Wave 5-3-3-5, what does it means ?  Major trend is 5, med term is 3, short term is 3 and intra day is 5. I believed through writing and picture may mislead ppls to fully understand what I try to tell.

Let move on to bottom line ... what should I do ? trading is like in the WAR, go to consider many angle in order to stay om the front edge !!! timing, volume, price action and indicator( every indicator have it own strength and weakness, some spot reversal in down trend, some is spot trend continue)

1.) Timing !!! tomorrow is Friday, market will close for 2 days and  what everything can happen during weekend, it adding a risk to those who do day trading, plus T3 is coming as well. it will be a strong signal some active trader will cash out the money ... like me :-)
2.) Wave count, I unfold the wave count down to the 1 hrs level. we can see now the wave 5 is develop and reach 1.86. I forecast the prices will reach 1.92 for second pulse.. I decided to take my profit 60%. it seem to be this wave 5 up  is confirm and it lose it stem to go up !! why ?

  1. Observed divergent happen on wave 5.
  2. Wave 5 volume is lower than wave 3, it is to confirm the wave is under develop.
  3. Wave 2 is correction is complicate, wave 4 correction is simple.
  4. Wave 3 is 1.61% or 2.61% extension of wave 1 length 

What is my next step after dispose my 60% contract?  base on my forecast small correction is just around the corner.  I believed you have the answer  what should I do...
Look at the chart above is the 1st scenario.. price down to 23% and make a stiff correction up for bull...which I seldom see it base on the wave count 5-3-3-5.

second scenario ... look at the chart below, basically it form a ABC ZZ down to 23% and rebound .. another stroke down to 32.8%...

third scenario ... it very similar to the 2nd ... which is ZZ and just the level of stroke down is difference


The 2nd scenarios is most probability event will happen, again it is not only this 3 type of correction ... and I can simple name more 7 type of correction pattern  will happen...

In summary what I did is offloaded  60% of my stock and I will buy back those stock at the level I mention... overall KPS is still bullish base on my personal experience ... let me know if anyone need more example of this head and shoulder pattern trading ... just post a question and I am willing to share... happy trading and weekend ahead



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